October, according to The Equipment Leasing and Finance Association’s (ELFA) Monthly Leasing and Finance Index, showed an overall increase in business activity of 6%.
So what happened to the recession?
There may still be a recession. but it isn’t the doom and gloom news many are making it out to be.
An intentional cooling off
Rather than an ugly recession rearing its head at s as the holidays come, maybe grabbing the hams off our tables and the packages from under our Christmas trees, what we expect to see is an intentional financial cooling down that will help stabilize inflation and give businesses a chance to perform maintenance and plan upcoming quarters.
Bloomberg predicts a nearly 50% chance of a recession within the next year. But it is hard to predict just what kind of recession will take place, even if there is widespread agreement that it is likely — and even necessary.
The real goal is a “soft landing.” That means reducing inflation without shrinking GDP. That’s very difficult to accomplish. The death and breadth of any recession depends on a lot of factors, including American consumer choices, which are hard to predict and control, as well as changes in interest rates, which the Fed much work to balance with consumer and capital behavior.
Corporations always try to charge as much as the traffic will bear. Many companies have seen record-breaking profits this year. At the same time, costs and wages have increased. Brands have been working to get consumers to spread out their holiday spending with weeks-long “Black Friday” sales and layers of discount pricing.
And yet many consumers seem to hold the government responsible for inflation.
Best choices
For businesses, this is good time to increase automation, to make sure all the machinery is working and the supply chains are as strong as possible.
Some companies may have to put their heads down and power through fourth quarter with a view toward surviving into the new year, but planning ahead should be top of mind at this point.
We can help. If you have Rexroth motion control systems, we can help you make sure that they are in the best possible shape for the new year. Call us for immediate assistance and avoid downtime and other surprises.