The latest Federal Reserve figures show that output in American factories increased across the board last month by .5% after performing badly for most of the year. This is the strongest increase in the past 12 months, and much higher than the predicted 2%. If mining and construction are included, total output expanded by .6%.
Experts warn that this may not signal the end of the downturn in manufacturing. Manufacturing has been in a decline for the past year, and is still .4% lower than it was a year ago. The trade war with China and depressed global demand are thought to have caused the slow down.
Machinery in particular is up by 1.6%. However, it had dropped by 1.7% in July. The continuing trade war may keep manufacturing down for the foreseeable future. Economists are predicting more than one million jobs lost in China if tariffs continue as expected.
American jobs
The loss of jobs in China doesn’t mean an increase in jobs in the United States. Jobs increased less than predicted in August, with just 3,000 new manufacturing jobs across the nation. U.S. companies may not have a sufficient workforce to fill jobs in the United States, even if manufacturers respond to the trade war by restoring.
Some manufacturers have said they are thinking about bringing manufacturing back to the United States in response not only to the trade war but also to concerns about safety and intellectual property security. However, increased automation is more likely than increased hiring.
Economists predict that the winners in manufacturing will be South and Southeast Asian countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam, as well as Central American nations like Mexico.
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